After Five Years: Do We Feel Safe in Mexico?

Early in our marriage, Reed and I lived in New York City for twenty-years, including the 1970's when NYC was dubbed "Dirty, Dangerous, Destitute". We got used to calls from family asking "Are you okay?" every time the press reported yet another gruesome  drug crime.

We learned where it was safe to go...and when. We learned first-hand how the media feature the sensational while ignoring the ordinary realities of everyday life. In short, we're accustomed to the complexities that urban living can present. But periodically, concerned friends and family ask, "Is Mexico Safe?"

So when this article appeared today in CNNMéxico (in Spanish), I immediately thought that Jenny's readers might find it useful. The piece interests me because it was written for a Mexican audience, rather than for potential U.S. tourists. My translation follows.

Getting back to our personal situation, the short answer is, yes, we feel safe in Mexico City and in the regions of Mexico that we visit. We're cultural history buffs with a keen interest in the Mesoamerican cultures that flourished before the Spanish arrived, so we tend to focus on Mexico's southern states and, of course, we are exploring the areas around Mexico City. 

We live in the tree-lined neighborhood called Parque San Andrés, a short ten-minute taxi ride from the center of Coyoacán. We enjoy Coyoacán because it's a little like a Mexican Greenwich Village—artists, musicians, writers, intellectuals...and families! On Sunday the Plaza is filled with families and couples, young and old, strolling along, children blowing bubbles, and everyone enjoying Coyoacán's famous nieves—ice cream.

It's not our intent to minimize the violence arising from the ill-conceived "War" on Drugs that is convulsing Mexico (and Central America) or the difficult issues that Mexico is wrestling with during its journey toward a fully functioning democracy, but at the same time we want to affirm that the underlying society in many parts of the country remains steady.

 CNN Mexico: Mariano Castillo

Violence in Mexico is back in the news along with the question: Is Mexico Safe?

In recent weeks several stories have appeared: like the twelve young people allegedly abducted in broad daylight from a club in Mexico City; the death of Malcolm X's grandson, also in the capital; the kidnapping of a member of the U.S. Marines from his father's ranch in Tamaulipas; the release of 165 illegal immigrants, including two pregnant women; and the case of an Arizona mother who was detained in Sonora and accused of drug smuggling while traveling back to the U.S. in a bus [with her husband, returning to their home in Utah from a family funeral] .

According to a report by Human Rights Watch, the death toll from the violence generated by fighting between security forces and organized crime numbers at least 60,000 people during the years from 2006 to 2012 [during the presidential administration of Felipe Calderón]. Other observers say the number is higher.

Outside the areas where there is fighting, more Americans have died in Mexico in the last decade than in any other country outside its national territory. The deaths increased from 35 in 2007 to 113 in 2011.

But these figures do not lead to any simple conclusion.

Millions of Americans visit Mexico each year without incident, and the number of tourists continues to climb. Nearly six million U.S. citizens visited Mexico in 2012, according to the Ministry of Tourism of Mexico. The first quarter of 2013 has seen a rise of 5.9% in U.S. tourists compared with the previous year.

Analysts and travel experts agree that security in Mexico varies, sometimes dramatically, from one place to another. The country is a contradiction. It is both dangerous or as safe as ever, depending on destination, activities and common sense.

"I think that what we have seen in Mexico in recent years is a nuanced view of what is safe and what is not safe," said Shannon K. O'Neil, a researcher at the Council of Foreign Affairs for Latin American Studies.

 "It's possible to be injured anywhere, but the risks are different for a business trip to the capital, from seeking the sun and beach in Cancún, to visiting family across the border," says O'Neil.

The Danger in Mexico City

Residents of Mexico City turned their attention this week to the disappearance of twelve young people in the Zona Rosa, a popular entertainment area famous for its night life. Families of the missing, one of whom is only sixteen-years old, allege they were abducted in broad daylight by an armed group.

Investigations have confirmed that the group was in the Heaven bar after going to a discotheque, but the case remains a mystery: there was no sign of an armed group or a struggle at the scene, authorities say.

The incident attracted attention because it was a particularly brazen crime in the country's largest city. Mexico City has remained secure even in light of the violence generated by the war on drugs, but the nation's capital is not immune to gang violence.

Twenty years ago, the city had a reputation of being a dangerous place, but successive local administrations have made it safe for residents and visitors. O'Neil states that there is a large police presence, and security cameras keep an eye on key locations.

"Although there is presence of organized crime, the capacity to enforce the law in Mexico City is much higher than elsewhere in the country," said the analyst.

Malcolm Shabazz, grandson of Malcolm X, died last month after suffering a beating in the nation's capital. Many of the details of that night are still unknown, but it is known that he had been in a bar a block from the Garibaldi Plaza, a famous place in the capital known for its gathering of mariachi bands. Those who know the city say that, like any other large metropolis, there are areas where visitors should stay away at certain times.

"Physical security is not a problem if you are in the main tourist areas and are sensible," in Mexico City, said John Bailey, professor emeritus at Georgetown University, who has studied public security in Mexico. "Bad things happen to good people, but it's only a small fraction."

The U.S. State Department has issued travel warnings not to visit Mexico City.

Jenny's Note: I just double-checked the U.S. State Department web site listing of travel warnings for Mexico, which states "Mexico City: No advisory is in effect. See also discussion in the section on Estado de Mexico (State of Mexico) for areas within the greater Mexico City metropolitan area." Travel warnings are in effect for some areas surrounding Mexico City.

Security at the Beaches

The majority of the millions of U.S. citizens who visit Mexico go to the cities along its coasts. According to Mexican authorities, the most popular destinations are: Cancún, Riviera Maya, Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta.

According to O'Neil, although it is impossible to separate completely the routes along which drugs are transported from places that tourists visit; nonetheless, there is a degree of separation. Drug trafficking can occur in Cancún just like anywhere else, but the tourist areas are generally safe, she added.

One thing that tourist destinations have in common, besides the beaches, is that neither is under a travel warning. Jill Noble, owner of Cruise Therapy Travel Co., in Texas, firmly defends Mexico as a safe destination.

"I've never felt threatened in any way, and that's what I tell my clients," she said.

She blames the media for focusing on fear and provoking fear in travelers:

"That's all people read," Noble said. "I've seen more paranoia [in my clients], of course," but it passes.

"Once your clients return from their holidays in Mexico, they wonder why they were so scared," she said.

The Border Remains a Mystery

Two recent incidents stood out in the headlines: the imprisonment of Yanira Maldonado, accused of smuggling marijuana and the search for U.S. Marine Armando Torres III. Both incidents occurred near the border.

This area between Mexico and the United States is culturally unique. Across it pass trucks laden with hundreds of billions of dollars of cross-border commercial trade. However, the proximity between the two countries makes many border cities key targets for illegal activities.

Drug cartels fighting to control smuggling routes engage in turf battles that can turn cities into war zones. Nuevo Laredo experienced this in the mid-2000s and later, Ciudad Juárez suffered the same misfortune.

Some things are changing. The murder rate in Ciudad Juárez, which is across from El Paso, Texas, has fallen enough to strip the city of the title "murder capital of the world". For the last two years, San Pedro Sula, in northwestern Honduras, has topped the list. Shootings in broad daylight and mass killings in the state of Tamaulipas, across from Texas, on the Gulf of Mexico, no longer appear in the news.

But that does not mean that all is well.

"Tamaulipas is under the control of criminal groups," said John Bailey, a professor with expertise in public safety in Mexico."The cartels can no longer have daily shootouts in the streets, but the risks for those who venture into the wrong place at the wrong time remain," he said.

Yanira Maldonado was arrested in the state of Sonora after the bus in which she was traveling was stopped at a military checkpoint. The soldiers stated they had found nearly six kilos of marijuana under her seat and arrested her. A campaign conducted by her family pressured a judge to release her, as they showed, by means of a video, that she did not board the bus with illegal packages.

Buses have previously been targets of criminal gangs for extortion and kidnapping.

In 2011, the U.S. Consulate in Matamoros, across the border from Brownsville, Texas, issued a warning not to ride the bus after they learned of at least three reports that buses in which Americans were traveling were boarded by criminals. In one instance, male bus passengers, including one U.S. citizen, were forcibly taken and disappeared. In Tamaulipas this week, authorities released 165 migrants apparently kidnapped for ransom.

The U.S. State Department has issued a travel warning for visitors to "defer non-essential travel" to most areas of the border states of Mexico.

Professor Bailey of Georgetown said that trips to Mexico are safer today than they were two years ago. But it has much to do with common sense and, in a twist of the old saying, he observes: it's not so much what you know, but where you are going and what you do.

"We Americans," said Bailey, "have a knack for finding trouble if we go looking for it."